Global Seasonal Climate Update for January-February-March 2026

Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season: For January–March (JFM) 2026, cold SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are forecast to weaken, indicating a gradual transition toward ENSO‑neutral conditions. Persistently above‑average SSTs in the western Pacific are expected to maintain a pronounced east–west gradient, reinforcing La Niña‑like atmospheric patterns across the equatorial Pacific. The IOD index is also projected to weaken, moving toward near‑average conditions. In the equatorial Atlantic, SSTs in the northern tropics are expected to remain slightly above normal, while the southern tropics are forecast to stay near normal.