Global Seasonal Climate Update for March-April-May 2026

Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season: For the March–May (MAM) 2026 season, forecast for SST patterns indicate
a period of transition across equatorial Pacific. Below-average SST anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are forecast to weaken, signaling a move toward ENSO-neutral conditions as the current weak La Niña dissipates. Despite this oceanic warming, persistently above-average SSTs in the western Pacific are expected to maintain a east–west temperature gradient. This gradient is likely to continue reinforcing La Niña-like atmospheric responses. In the Indian Ocean, the IOD index is projected to weaken from its recent negative state toward near-average conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warm; SSTs in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic are predicted to stay slightly above normal, maintaining the broad trend of above-average Atlantic warmth observed over the preceding seasons.