State of the Climate Update for COP31
- 2026 will be one of four warmest years on record
- El Niño turns up the heat and multiplies risks
- Sea level and ocean heat are at record high levels
- Extreme weather has massive economic and human cost
- Forecasts and warnings, underpinned by sustained observations, are vital
The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026 shows that the past 12 years (2015–2026) are set to be the warmest on record. The global average surface temperature from January to September was about 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. El Niño has intensified since August and is expected to reach record strength by December.
El Niño releases heat from the ocean and is expected to increase the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall well into 2027. Global mean sea level reached its highest point in the satellite record, which began in 1993. Preliminary data through July point to a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat content.
The WMO State of the Climate 2026 Update was released on the first day of the UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Türkiye, as an authoritative, science-based report. It includes data – where available – up to September 2026 and therefore does not reflect the most recent impacts of El Niño.
About the State of the Climate Update for COP series
The WMO State of the Global Climate report focuses on key climate indicators – greenhouse gases, temperatures, sea level rise, ocean heat and acidification, sea ice and glaciers.
