Wetter and warmer conditions forecast across the Arab region
Above-normal rainfall and temperatures are expected across most of the Arab region during October–December 2026 as a result of the strong El Niño event and other climate drivers, according to the Arab Climate Outlook Forum (ArabCOF).
The rainfall anomaly is expected to large over Middle Eastern countries, Somalia and Comoros in November 2026. Rainfall is forecast to be closer to normal across much of the region in December, with drier-than-normal conditions likely in northern Algeria and Tunisia.
The outlook was prepared at an extraordinary online session to support preparations for potentially exceptional rainfall, to help climate-sensitive sectors and humanitarian organizations plan ahead and to protect lives and livelihoods.
The Arab Climate Outlook Forum supports the subregional forums for North Africa and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. It is one of a series of regional climate outlook forums promoted by WMO to provide insights and actionable information.
It factors in the development of El Niño, which is expected to peak in December and is expected to be the strongest on record,
The Indian Ocean Dipole, which was positive in October, is forecast to weaken in November and return to neutral in December. Warmer-than-normal conditions in the tropical North and South Atlantic also informed the outlook.
- Region:
- Region I: Africa