Global Data-processing and Forecasting System

The Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) strengthens the capabilities of Members to meet the needs of users by sharing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products and services related to operational meteorology and related fields in all time-scales.

The Programme facilitates the development, operation and enhancement of worldwide systems for the generation and dissemination of analyses and forecast products for all time-scales (from minutes to decades), as well as severe weather advisories and warnings, and related operational information. The activities carried out under the GDPFS ensure that Members and partner organizations have access to advanced NWP products and services in relation to operational meteorology and related fields, which enables them to serve a variety of users. The GDPFS is organized as an international cooperative programme, under which the infrastructure, systems and facilities needed for the provision of these services are owned, implemented and operated by Member States and Territories.  

The Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) facilitates cooperation and exchange of information in operational meteorology and related field. By contributing to capacity development amongst all Members, especially developing and least developed countries, the Programme supports:

• weather forecasting and warning services, contributing to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and to socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and food security, aviation, marine safety and transportation, and so on;
• climate prediction and the production of climate services, contributing to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS); and
• specific applications through the provision of specialized products.

The GDPFS develops and supports the use of technical standard procedures for analyzing observations, running dynamical weather, climate and environmental prediction models, and exchanging Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data, products and services. These are described in the Manual on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (WMO publication No. 485).

Numerical Weather Prediction

The advances in NWP in the last decades have been tremendous thanks to more, and better assimilated, observations, higher computing power and progress in our understanding of dynamics and physics. These advances, which have led to increasingly skilful weather forecasting, will become even more relevant in the future. Consequently, the emphasis in operational meteorology, hydrology, oceanography and climatology has shifted towards the implementation of increasingly sophisticated and diverse numerical models and applications in order to serve an ever-increasing variety of users. NWP generally provides an accurate indication of developing weather events from hours to days ahead. NWP is, therefore, one of the most relevant components of routine and severe weather forecasting and warnings at National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). However, the weather forecasting capability among these NMHSs varies enormously: the more advanced NMHSs are making use of the progress in NWP, but those in the developing and least developed countries have seen little advancement due to limited budgets and reduced capabilities. And the gap is increasing.

Owing to the high computational cost of global and limited-area NWP systems, including Ensemble Prediction Systems using multiple model runs, few Members have the operational capacity to implement such systems. Many of the latest advances in NWP systems, such as so-called “convection-permitting” models that are particularly suitable for severe weather forecasting in tropical and sub-tropical regions are extremely computationally intensive, thus they are supported only by the leading Meteorological Services. The Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP) makes products from NWP models, including Ensemble Prediction Systems, of the most advanced Members available to all using a Cascading Forecasting Process.

The Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) is composed of a worldwide network of operational centres operated by Members who generate products and services for applications related to weather, climate, water and environment 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

It is a three-level system with various functions carried out at the global level by the World Meteorological Centres, at the regional level by Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres including Regional Climate Centres, and at the national level by National Meteorological Centres.

The Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and Information Systems (Infrastructure Commission) manages the operations and development of the GDPFS.

The cascading forecasting process

The GDPFS encompasses all systems operated by Members (including those jointly coordinated with other international organizations such as ICAO) and enables them to make use of the advances in NWP by providing a framework for sharing data related to operational meteorology, hydrology, oceanography and climatology. The main support for the exchange and delivery of these data is the WMO Information System (WIS). One of the key benefits of WIS is the expansion of the range of centres that can connect to the system, increasing the range of GDPFS applications.

The Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP) contributes to capacity building by helping developing countries to access and make use of existing NWP products for improving hazardous weather warnings. It encourages operational forecasters to use relevant standards and newly developed products and procedures. The Programme outcomes:

• Enhanced capability for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to forecast severe weather and issue warnings at the national level, including improved accuracy and longer lead-times;
• Establishment of processes for multi-hazard early warnings with national disaster management and civil protection authorities, with planned responses for protection of lives and property;
• Established forecast processes and Quality Management Systems (QMS), and strengthened forecast capabilities in support of other socio-economic activities (such as agriculture and food security, aviation, marine safety and transportation, etc.) at the national level;
• Raised awareness of the value of NMHSs with national governments and their agencies, leading in the longterm to greater national support and investment, leading, in turn, to improved supply of observations and feedback into the GDPFS; and
• Reduced loss of life and damage to property and contributions to the 2030 Development Agenda and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

The core components of the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) are Data-processing, Operational Forecasting, Forecast Verification and Capacity Development. Coordination, integration and efficient operation of these components are achieved through the activities of the GDPFS centres (see Structure) under the governance and management of the Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and Information Systems (Infrastructure Commission).

The Earth system approach

The quest to project future climate change has over the last two decades resulted in the development of increasingly sophisticated Earth System Models (ESMs), which simulate not only the coupled ocean-atmosphere system but also the global carbon cycle, and several other aspects of atmospheric chemistry and ocean biochemistry. Increasingly ESMs are representing the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-biosphere-land system and they are applied over shorter time scales. These models make feasible a range of environmental predictions beyond the reach of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP), including predictions of ocean currents, wind-waves and swells, ocean biochemistry such as algae blooms, hydrology such as stream flow and dam yield, volcanic ash transport, fire outbreaks and spread, atmospheric chemistry (e.g. aerosols, stratospheric ozone) and the global carbon cycle. These Earth System component predictions are of operational importance in terms of managing high-impact environmental events, disaster risk reduction and mitigation processes, as well as for adaptation or planning at multi-decadal time scales. 

Advances in supercomputing over the last decade have furthered environmental predictions. Larger ensembles of NWP with increased horizontal and vertical resolutions are generated across all time scales. These developments clearly indicate the potential to evolve Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) from its current form to a seamless platform, covering predictions for all time scales from minutes to centuries and encapsulating everything known about the Earth system which involves the atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere, along with all of the interconnections and feedbacks among them.

Future Integrated, Seamless Global Data Processing and Forecasting System Collaborative Framework

A way forward for vision for a future Seamless Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (S/GDPFS) was approved by the World Meteorological Congress. Building on the existing architecture, the future S/GDPFS will become a flexible and adaptable ecosystem of independent centres that will expand and strengthen prediction of the environment, making impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings accessible, thus enabling Members and partners to make better-informed decisions. The GDPFS evolution will allow the generation of products and delivery of services in environmental areas beyond the original paradigm of weather delivery system. It will take advantage of technological and social developments in order to increase its usefulness and maintain its relevance to Members by taking a verifiable Earth system approach.

The S/GDPFS will provide standardized state-of-the-art interfaces to facilitate partnerships and collaboration globally and regionally among jurisdictions, academia and the private sector to access and make available related information of relevance to the mandate of WMO across all timescales and domains of the Earth system.  The S/GDPFS will, as much as possible, share authoritative weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services freely and openly and in a viable and sustainable way, ensuring no Members are left behind.  As stated in the WMO strategic plan for 2020-2023 (Strategic Objective 2.3), the fundamental responsibility of GDPFS will be to enable access to, and use of, the state-of-the-art numerical analysis and prediction products at all temporal and spatial scales. It is a high priority that the S/GDPFS will assist Developing and Least Developed Countries to make significant progress towards community resilience and reaching Sustainable Development Goals. 

The future S/GDPFS will also bring benefits to broader user communities, including stakeholders responsible for preparedness for a wider variety of high-impact events;  sectors impacted by weather and climate (e.g. energy, agriculture, health, integrated water resource management); and urban stakeholders, city planners, United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, including nongovernmental organizations.

Future Integrated, Seamless GDPFS Collaborative Framework