Baker, J.C.A., L. Garcia-Carreras, W. Buermann, D.C. de Souza, J.H. Marsham, P.Y. Kubota, M. Gloor, C.A.S. Coelho, and D.V. Spracklen, 2021: Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land-atmosphere interactions. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 074002.
Boers, N., 2021: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nature Climate Change, 11, 680–688.
Boulton, C.A., T.M. Lenton, and N. Boers, 2022: Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s. Nature Climate Change, 12, 271–278.
Breshears, D.D., H.D. Adams, D. Eamus, N.G. MacDowell, D.J. Law, R.E. Will, A.P. Williams, and C.B. Zou, 2020: The critical amplifying role of increasing atmospheric moisture demand on tree mortality and associated regional die-off. Frontiers in Plant Science, 4, 266, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2013.00266.
Brovkin, V., E. Brook, J.W. Williams, S. Bathiany, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton, R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopin, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, H. Liddy, M.F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A.W.R. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderveken, and Z.C. Yu, 2021: Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system. Nature Geoscience, 14, 550–558.
Caesar, L., G.D. McCarthy, D.J.R. Thornalley, N. Cahill, and S. Rahmstorf, 2021: Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium. Nature Geoscience, 14, 118–120.
Clark, P.U., J.D. Shakun, S.A. Marcott, A.C. Mix, M. Eby, S. Kulp, A. Levermann, G.A. Milne, P.L. Pfister, B.D. Santer, D.P. Schrag, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, B.H. Strauss, A.J. Weaver, R. Winkelmann, D. Archer, E. Bard, A. Goldner, K. Lambeck, R.T. Pierrehumbert, and G.-K. Plattner, 2016: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 360–369.
Cowan, T., G.C. Hegerl, A. Schurer, S.F.B. Tett, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, A. Jezequel, F.E.L. Otto, L.J. Harrington, and B. Ng, 2020: Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States. Nature Communications, 11, 2870.
Frölicher, T.L., E.M. Fischer, and N. Gruber, 2018: Marine heatwaves under global warming. Nature, 560, 560, 360–364.
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J.F., and R. Winkelmann, 2020: The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature, 585, 538–544.
Guiot, J., and W. Cramer, 2016: Climate Change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems. Science, 354, 465–468.
Heinze, C., T. Blenckner, H. Martins, D. Rusiecka, R. Doscher, M. Gehlen, N. Gruber, E. Holland, O. Hov, F. Joos, J.B.R. Matthews, R. Rodven, and S. Wilson, 2021: The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 118, e2008478118.
Hewitt, H., B. Fox-Kemper, B. Pearson, M. Roberts, and D. Klocke, 2022: The small scales of the ocean may hold the key to surprises. Nature Climate Change, 12, 496–499.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M, Taylor, T. Guillen Bolanos, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I.A. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, C.W. Hope, A.J. Payne, H.-O. Portner, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, and G. Zhou, 2019: The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C. Science, 365, eaaw6974.
Humphrey, V., J. Zscheischler, P. Ciais, L. Gudmundsson, S. Sitch, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2018: Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage. Nature, 560, 628–631.
IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [J.J. McCarthy, et al. (eds.)], 1031 pp., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001.
Jackson, L.C., A. Biastoch, M.W. Buckley, D.G. Desbruyeres, E. Frajka-Williams, B. Moat, and J. Robson, 2022: The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3, 241–254.
Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., & Anderson, K. J., 2018: Risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C depending on rarity. Earth’s Future, 6, 704-715. https://doi.org/10.1002/2018EF000813
Katzenberger, A., J. Schewe, J. Pongratz, and A. Levermann, 2021: Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 367–386.
Kornhuber, K., D. Coumou, E. Vogel, C. Lesk, J. F. Donges, J. Lehmann, and R. M. Horton, 2020: Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions. Nature Climate Change, 10, 48–53.
Miralles, D. G., Teuling, A. J., Van Heerwaarden, C. C., Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J. G. Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation, 2014. Nature Geoscience, 7, 345–349.
Pal, J.S., and E.A.B. Eltahir, 2016: Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability. Nature Climate Change, 6, 197–200.
Pattyn, F., and M. Morlighem, 2020: The uncertain future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science, 367, 1331–1335.
Pattyn, F., et al., 2018: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 1053–1061.
Ratnayake, H.U., M.R. Kearney, P. Govekar, D. Karoly, and J.A. Welbergen, Forecasting wildlife die-offs from extreme heat events. Animal Conservation, 22, 386–395, 2019.
Riahi, K., et al., 2017, The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168, doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
Romanello, M., et al., 2021: The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future,.Lancet, 398, 1619–1662.
Seneviratne, S.I., T. Corti, E.L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E.B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky, and A.J. Teuling, 2010: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 125–161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004.
Slingo, J., P. Bates, P. Bauer, S. Belcher, T. Palmer, G. Stephens, B. Stevens, T. Stocker, and G. Teutsch, 2022: Ambitious partnership needed for reliable climate prediction. Nature Climate Change, 12, 499–503.
Stocker, T.F., G.K.C. Clarke, H. Le Treut, R.S. Lindzen, V.P. Meleshko, R.K. Mugara, T.N. Palmer, R.T. Pierrehumbert, P.J. Sellers, K.E. Trenberth, and J. Willebrand, Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks, in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by J.T. Houghton, et al., pp. 417–470, Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Stocker, T.F., et al., Technical Summary, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T.F. Stocker, et al., pp. 33–115, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Trusel, and M. van den Broeke, 2018: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 1053–1061.
Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., et al., 2021: The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature Climate Change, 11, 492-500.
Vogel, M.M., J. Zscheischler, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2018: Varying soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation in central Europe. Earth System Dynamics, 9, 1107–1125.
Warren, R., J. Price, E. Graham, N. Forstenhaeusler, and J. VanDerWal, 2018: The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C. Science, 360, 791–795.
Wartenburger, R., M. Hirschi, M.G. Donat, P. Greve, A.J. Pitman, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geoscience Model Development, 10, 3609–3634.
Weijer, W., W. Cheng, O.A. Garuba, A. Hu, and B.T. Nadiga, 2020: CMIP6 models predict significant 21st century decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 10.1029/2019GL086075.
Worthington, E.L., B.I. Moat, D.A. Smeed, J.V. Mecking, R. Marsh, and G.D. McCarthy, 2021: A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shows no decline. Ocean Science, 17, 285–299.
Zemp, D.C., C.F. Schleussner, H.M.J. Barbosa, M. Hirota, V. Montade, G. Sampaio, A. Staal, L. Wang-Erlandsson, and A. Rammig, 2017: Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature Communications, 8, 14681, 10.1038/ncomms14681.