More on Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP)

The Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP) aims to strengthen the capacity of WMO Members to provide accurate and timely forecasts and warnings of severe weather. Its core objective is to help save lives and livelihoods, and to protect property and critical infrastructure.

Currently, SWFP supports approximately 85 developing countries across nine sub-regions through contributions from the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) — formerly known as the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) — with additional support from development partners and donors.

In support of the United Nations Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, SWFP is expanding its geographical coverage to reach more countries and regions. The Programme also promotes the development of improved forecasting tools and guidance products to help National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) enhance their early warning capabilities.
 

Focus on impact-based forecasting

In collaboration with the Public Weather Services (PWS) initiative, SWFP promotes the transition from traditional hazard-based warnings to impact-based forecasts and warnings (IBFWS). These services inform not only what the weather will be, but also what it will do — highlighting the potential impacts of hazardous weather on people, livelihoods and infrastructure. This approach supports risk-informed decision-making and more effective disaster risk reduction.

Capacity development under SWFP prioritizes support for NMHSs in developing countries, least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS) and Territories, in line with WMO’s broader commitments to equity and resilience.
 

From demonstration to operational programme

SWFP evolved from the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP), launched in 2006. SWFDP aimed to provide WMO Members with access to advanced Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products — including Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) outputs — from leading global WIPPS Centres.

These global-scale products were shared through a Cascading Forecasting Process, where:

  • Global Centres provided NWP and EPS products;
  • Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) interpreted and synthesized these products;
  • NMHSs received tailored guidance to support localized forecasting and warning services.

To address infrastructure limitations, especially bandwidth constraints, the programme ensured that products were optimized for low-data environments, allowing NMHSs to access and use essential guidance materials.

Because NMHSs within a sub-region often have similar forecasting needs, SWFDP also promoted regional coordination to enhance efficiency and consistency in service delivery.

In 2019, the Eighteenth Session of the World Meteorological Congress (Cg-18) formally transitioned the Project to an operational programme through Resolution 15, establishing the Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP) and confirming the effectiveness of the cascading approach.

Regional subprogrammes

SWFP is currently active in the following sub-regions: