Intervention during the session “Can Trees Tame the Flames?” at the World Economic Forum

How are climate and weather extremes interacting with forest conditions to reshape fire behaviour? 

Coming from Argentina, I know that wildfires are not a distant problem, we are currently experiencing them. Argentina’s Patagonia is burning, wildfires are devouring forests and homes, forcing thousands to flee as drought and fierce winds fuel the flames. Australia has this year witnessed similar terrible scenes.

Forest fires are no longer local disasters: they are global atmospheric and health events.

And this is my first message. Forest fires are no longer isolated short-lived emergencies. Observations coordinated by WMO from the Arctic to the tropics show that wildfires have a major negative impact on atmospheric composition and air quality worldwide. As fire seasons grow longer and more intense with climate change, large fires release massive amounts of particulate matter and trace gases – notably carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) – detected by WMO Global Atmosphere Watch stations operated by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and partners.

Fire emissions contribute to record growth rates of atmospheric CO₂, while weakening forests’ capacity to act as carbon sinks – reinforcing a vicious cycle of warming, more fires, and worsening air pollution.

On this, let me stress here that there is particular concern that the Amazon rainforest may be transitioning from its role as a major carbon sink and towards becoming a source of net emissions.

As a matter of fact, in 2024, wildfire season on the Amazon river basin combined with emissions from wildfires in Chile resulted in record wildfire smoke affecting many countries and their densely populated urban areas in Latin America. The same year, Mexico experienced its most active fire season on record. Canada burned more than twice its long-term average and suffered its second costliest wildfire in history. The United States saw fire activity 20% above the 2001–2020 average. 

In 2024, wildfire activity led to above-average PM2.5 levels in Canada, Siberia and central Africa (This refers to fine particulate matter—tiny particles in the air that are 2.5 micrometres or smaller. These particles can be inhaled deep into the lungs and are harmful to health). The highest anomaly, however, was in the Amazon basin, according to WMO’s Air Quality and Climate Bulletin.

For 2025, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data showed that Europe experienced its highest annual total emissions since CAMS records began in 2003 and Canada endured its second-highest yearly emissions.

Climate and weather extremes are reshaping fire behaviour in very concrete ways. Hotter temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent heatwaves dry out vegetation and extend fire seasons. Stronger and more erratic winds allow fires to spread faster and jump natural barriers. Forests that were once resilient are now primed to burn.

So what we are learning is this: climate and weather extremes are not just increasing the number of fires—they are transforming fires into systemic risks to health, economies and the global climate system. And that is why early warning, science, and international cooperation are no longer optional—they are essential.

Where do we see early warning, climate forecasts and satellite data actually changing decisions on the ground—helping countries manage forests and reduce wildfire risk before a crisis starts?

We know that fire weather is increasing. But what we see very clearly is that wildfire risk is not the same everywhere—and that is why early information matters so much. In some regions, especially where forests meet large populations, forest management decisions such as thinning (the deliberate removal of some trees and vegetation from a forest to reduce fire risk.) or prescribed burning (the planned, intentional use of fire under carefully controlled conditions to reduce wildfire risk) are critical. In other parts of the world, fires occur in vast, remote areas, often ignited by lightning, where access on the ground is extremely limited. In all cases, meteorologists and satellite observations are absolutely central to the response.

Across all these different fire regimes, real-time and long-term fire detection relies heavily on the free and rapid exchange of satellite data, something strongly championed by WMO. 

Example from Australia: A concrete example comes from northern Australia, where land managers depend on a satellite-based fire information system developed with the Bureau of Meteorology. This system tracks burned areas across enormous and inaccessible regions, allowing authorities to plan fuel management and allocate resources before fires escalate.

Weather conditions play a decisive role in shaping fire risk during a season. Droughts and heatwaves can dramatically increase fire danger, as seen before Australia’s devastating 2019 “Black Summer” fires. Extreme events can also create new risks. In 2024, Cyclone Chido in Mayotte killed large areas of vegetation. Meteorological analysis quickly showed that once this vegetation dried, it would become highly flammable—allowing fire agencies to adjust preparedness early.

Seasonal forecasting is now providing skilful probabilistic guidance across many regions, including in the tropics such as Réunion and northern Australia. These forecasts inform decisions on when to carry out prescribed burns, where to reduce fuel loads, and when to prepare for more intense firefighting operations.

During fire seasons, collaboration becomes even more direct. Fire agencies work closely with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, often with meteorologists physically collocated with fire managers. In France, for example, Météo-France produces a daily meteorological danger map. This is reviewed with all stakeholders and translated into a clear wildfire risk map, assigning one of five danger levels to each forest area—guiding real operational decisions.

Detailed knowledge of vegetation, fuel and weather is essential because fire behaviour can change suddenly. This is why early warning matters. Using weather prediction, satellite data and atmospheric monitoring, National Meteorological Services provide the intelligence authorities need to act early—reducing risk, protecting lives and managing forests more safely, before a crisis unfolds.

To move from reacting to fires to acting early at scale, how can climate services better connect science, land-use planning, forest management, health systems and businesses—and what partnerships are still missing to make this work across regions?

What we have learned from recent fire seasons is that early warning only works if it is connected to action—and action depends on strong partnerships. Climate services cannot operate in isolation. To scale fire-resilient forests, we need to link science, technology, land-use planning, public health and markets into a single operational system.

WMO’s goal is to help countries move from reacting to fires to acting early—ideally before smoke reaches people and cities. We have made real progress, but early warning systems are still uneven in quality and coverage. In many regions, the science exists, but the connection to decision-makers and economic planning is still too weak.

That is why WMO works closely with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, scientists and health experts to improve both the forecasts and how they are used. Better seasonal outlooks, satellite observations and atmospheric monitoring allow authorities to anticipate who may be affected, when, and how severely—not just by flames, but by smoke and heat.

Partnerships at the global level are essential. WMO is a key partner in FAO’s Global Fire Hub and the Global Wildfires Information System, where we serve as the reference agency for forecast and monitoring products. By coordinating data and modelling, we help countries use consistent, trusted information to plan forest management, firefighting capacity and cross-border responses. This directly supports the global wildfire management objectives of the seven edition of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-7).

But scaling resilience also means connecting climate services to health systems and markets. WMO is working closely with the World Health Organization to better quantify and communicate the health impacts of wildfire smoke. We know from science that smoke exposure is linked to asthma attacks, hospital admissions, cardiovascular stress and mental health impacts—even thousands of kilometres downwind. Yet many health systems still treat smoke as an exceptional event, rather than a predictable and recurring risk.

Regional and international collaboration is vital.

Through WMO’s Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Warning and Advisory System (VFSP-WAS), Environment and Climate Change Canada hosts the WMO North American regional centre for smoke forecasting. During extreme fire seasons, the centre combines weather forecasts, fire emissions and air-quality models to predict smoke transport days in advance. These forecasts feed directly into public air-quality alerts, health advisories and cross-border coordination – helping protect populations well beyond the fire zones.

In Southeast Asia, the WMO regional centre in Singapore delivers transboundary smoke forecasts during haze events, supporting public health and policy decisions across national borders. These examples show how WMO guidance helps NMHSs turn science into operational warnings that save lives.

Real time fire ‘hot-spot’ information images can now be obtained every few minutes or so from meteorological satellites. In 2019, Australia used 2.5 minute resolution satellite data from the Japanese ‘Himawari’ weather satellite to monitor fire and plume development. The dispersion of smoke plumes from fires can be forecast locally and globally from numerical modelling, taking advantage of WMO’s global infrastructure of weather modelling centres.

The same observations and analyses used to protect people during fire seasons also feed WMO’s climate reporting — strengthening evidence-based decision-making and a possible mechanism to assess the economic valuation of different forest management options as is done in other sectors.

So, to conclude, we must connect climate science with land-use planners, forest managers, health authorities and markets is what allows early warning to translate into real protection. That is how we move from crisis response to resilient landscapes, at scale.

What must change in the next five years to ensure forests reduce wildfire risk rather than amplify it?

In the next five years, we must stop treating wildfires as surprises and start managing forests as critical infrastructure—using science, early warning, AI and strong partnerships to act early, protect people from smoke and heat, and ensure forests reduce risk rather than fuel the next crisis.