El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2009) Document 17 February 2009 Conditions resembling La Niña developed in December 2008, but they are already weakening and are not expected to herald a prolonged basin-wide La Niña event. Indeed, most assessments indicate that a transition back to neutral conditions is expected to occur over the next couple of months. One interpretation is that this has been a brief redevelopment of the La Niña event that prevailed through the latter part of 2007 and into the first half of 2008. Nonetheless, the La Niña-like conditions are having significant consequences for some current climate patterns, and impacts may continue in some regions over the next month or two. By March-May 2009, forecasts suggest that the most likely outcome is near-neutral conditions basin-wide across the tropical Pacific. The likelihood of El Niño or La Niña development through the remainder of 2009 is considered to be essentially unpredictable at this stage, with neither event considered more likely than the other. Download document Share: Document type: El NIño / La Niña Update