WMO Research Programmes, Promoting Science for Action
WMO programmes have been at the forefront of revolutionary advancements in weather, climate, water and related environmental sciences
- Author(s):
- WMO Secretariat
Over the past decades, WMO programmes have been at the forefront of revolutionary advancements in weather, climate, water and related environmental sciences. The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)1 and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) have equipped the world with science, technology and knowledge that can save lives and contribute to sustainable socioeconomic development.
Scientific advancements, satellites and supercomputers, as well as an increase in observational data, have improved our ability to forecast hydrometeorological events with remarkable accuracy and to project future changes in climate with reduced uncertainty. Advances in multi-hazard early warning systems have decreased mortality rates, and new technologies, such as nowcasting, artificial intelligence and high-resolution modelling, are revolutionizing the way we predict high-impact weather and water hazards2.
This article highlights how WMO-sponsored research, coordinated through GAW, WWRP and WCRP, has led to groundbreaking scientific advancements while also providing support to WMO Members to enhance observations, prediction and applications. It demonstrates how WMO science has informed, and continues to inform, strategies for achieving global goals, such as the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN Early Warnings for All initiative.
Global Atmosphere Watch
Soon after its establishment, WMO embarked on the development of a programme to monitor atmospheric chemistry and the meteorological aspects of air pollution by creating the Global Ozone Observing System in 1957. In the late 1960s, when environmental protection became an international concern, the Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network was established. Then, the UN Conference on the Human Environment in 1972 drew worldwide attention to environmental problems, including the threat of Chlorofluorocarbons to the ozone layer, transboundary air pollution, and potential global warming caused by the build-up of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Each of these issues became the subject of international treaties or conventions and subsequent protocols and agreements. This led WMO, in 1989, to consolidate the Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network and the Global Ozone Observing System into GAW.
Over the years, GAW has matured considerably to coordinate atmospheric composition observations from global to local scales. About 100 countries participate in GAW, enabling the provision of accessible, high-quality, atmospheric data to the scientific community and enhancing global understanding of atmospheric composition and atmosphere-ocean-biosphere interactions. Some of the major achievements to date include the provision of data to support global conventions through the annual WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin and WMO Ozone and UV Bulletin, the coupling of observations with prediction tools to support services aimed at protecting human and ecosystem health and establishing new initiatives that serve society.
Current GAW activities build on its longstanding success in fostering international collaboration to drive impactful science and services for society. For example, recognizing that air pollution is a global health risk3 contributing to millions of premature deaths each year4, GAW established the Global Air Quality Forecasting and Information System (GAFIS), which enhances air quality forecasting and information services to reduce health impacts. By accelerating the implementation of effective pollution control strategies, GAFIS contributes to reducing the health burden of pollution to societies, protecting environmental resources and enabling socio-economic development.
GAW also supports the implementation of Early Warnings for All. For example, its Sand and Dust Storms Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) is coordinating a global network of research and forecasting centres to enhance operational SDS forecasts through technology transfer. In arid and semi-arid regions, SDS pose a major challenge to sustainable development and are becoming more frequent due to climate change and unsustainable land and water use. In Burkina Faso, for example, SDS-WAS is being used daily by local weather forecasters to assess dust situations quickly and provide warnings.
Another example is the Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Warning Advisory and Assessment System (VFSP-WAS), which enhances the delivery of vegetation fire and smoke pollution forecasts, observations, information and knowledge. Vegetation fires release large amounts of particulate matter and toxic gases into the atmosphere, which have impacts on human health and the environment. Recognizing the need for international coordination, GAW has taken the lead to develop and implement the VFSP-WAS in support of early warnings and the prevention of destructive fires.
Finally, GAW activities play a crucial role in the provision of data to support global conventions. From its inception up to the present day, GAW has been one of the pillars of the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and its Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone Layer. GAW plays an essential role in supporting the success of the Montreal Protocol and the expected recovery of ozone, which must be fully measured and understood. GAW activities also support the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement through the Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS), which has improved the evaluation of GHG sources and sinks. As a result, IG3IS plays an important role in supporting ambitious mitigation actions under the Paris Agreement and, together with provision of GHG concentration through the monitoring infrastructure, contributes to developing the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch.
World Weather Research Programme
Established in 1998, WWRP promotes research to improve weather forecasting, and to provide impact-based forecasts from minutes to months ahead. However, observations show that climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather – heatwaves, heavy precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones – which disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. This is amplifying the importance of WWRP, which focuses on putting science into the hands of those who need it to reduce disaster risks and to drive sustainable development. To accomplish this, WWRP strives to achieve seamless Earth system observations and predictions through increased convergence between weather, climate and environmental approaches as well as interdisciplinary collaboration that links physical and social sciences.
In its early days, WWRP was integrated into The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX), a 10-year international research and development programme launched in 2003 that accelerated improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts. THORPEX was succeeded by three WWRP core projects: Polar Prediction Project (PPP) from to 2013 to 2022, Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project from 2013 to 2023, and High-Impact Weather (HIWeather) Project from 2014 to 2024. These projects made major advances in weather prediction for capacity building and improved stakeholder engagement.
Highlighted by the Year of Polar Prediction, PPP broke new ground in the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system through analysis of novel observations and the advent of kilometre-scale simulations. The S2S project probed the predictability of the atmosphere to seasonal time scales and led to the use of S2S forecasts for applications across a wide range of economic sectors and the creation of a high-quality research database, galvanizing the research community and enabling collaboration and exploration. The HIWeather project explored the value chain of weather forecasts and created a framework for understanding disaster risk reduction by uncovering the reasons behind the unforeseen impacts of extreme weather.
Building on this success, and in response to emerging needs, the current WWRP Implementation Plan (2024-2027) includes six projects. For example, the Sub-Seasonal Applications for aGriculture and Environment (SAGE) Project, directly contributes to several SDGs by making sub-seasonal forecasts (from 2 weeks to 1 or 2 months ahead) more useful for decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, energy, health, water and disaster risk reduction. Another project, the Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS) Project, aims to improve the actionability, impact and fidelity of environmental forecasting for human and environmental well-being in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As a result, this project will support adaptation and sustainable development in Indigenous communities that face increasing threats to their traditional livelihoods resulting from dramatic shifts in weather patterns.
WWRP also has numerous projects that contribute to Early Warning for All and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. For example, the Integrated Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions (InPRHA) project aims to improve effective warning of flood hazards by integrating precipitation and hydrologic predictions and social sciences. The Urban Production Project, which is just getting started, will contribute to more effective early warnings systems tailored to urban populations. Additionally, the Progressing EW4All Oriented to Partnerships and Local Engagement (PEOPLE) Project focuses on researching the structural and social elements of expanded early warning systems, emphasizing science for and with policy and practice to enhance effective risk reduction. Finally, the Aiding Decision-making in Vulnerable Africa with Nowcasting of ConvEction (ADVANCE) Project encompasses several WWRP endorsed projects – such as the Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) Early Warnings for Southern Africa (EWSA) project – that harness science and technology to enhance satellite-based nowcasting, or the prediction of rapidly developing events, such as thunderstorms, on timescales up to six hours. As a result, the project aims to not only advance nowcasting technology but also help ensure that everyone receives these early warnings and knows what action to take to reduce the risk of negative impacts.
World Climate Research Programme
In 1979, WMO and partner organizations hosted the First World Climate Conference in Geneva, marking the end of a decade of growing concern about issues related to the human impacts on the climate5. Conference deliberations resulted in the World Climate Conference Declaration, which called for urgent action to improve knowledge of climate to prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity. Recognizing the interdisciplinary nature of climate issues, WCRP was formally established in 1980 under the joint sponsorship of the International Science Council (ISC) and the WMO to coordinate climate research. In 1993, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) also became sponsors.
From launching its first initiatives in 1982 to its ongoing work coordinating and facilitating international climate research, WCRP has made important contributions to advancing climate science for society. In particular, WCRP has played a critical role in underpinning the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since it was created in 1988 by WMO and the UN Environment Programme. The WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which provides climate projections to understand past, present and future climate changes, has been at the core of every IPCC Assessment Report that informs governments about the state of knowledge on climate change. Additionally, CMIP projections inform policymakers in the development of global climate change policies, contribute to national and regional climate assessments and support decision makers across diverse sectors, including the financial and insurance sectors.
Building on CMIP, the WCRP Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) supports effective climate change adaptation by providing projections of how the climate may change in the future at regional scales to support the identification of potential adaptation solutions. For example, the new CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on High- Resolution Downscaling of Tropical Cyclones in the Caribbean Region, is developing detailed projections of tropical cyclone behaviour and associated impacts in the Caribbean region, where many small islands are not represented in coarser climate models. The information provided by high-resolution projections is essential to inform multi-sectorial adaptation strategies, reduce risks and vulnerabilities, and enhance natural hazard preparedness in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Additionally, one of WCRP’s Core Projects: the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) advances understanding of climate-driven changes in the cryosphere to support efforts to mitigate and adapt to their impacts on ecosystems and human society. Changes to glaciers not only contribute to global sea level rise but can also lead to new hazards – such as glacial lake outburst floods – and effect water availability and hydropower, which can significantly impact local communities. As a result, CliC is advancing glacier dynamics research through the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project, which aims to provide – for the first time – a framework for a coordinated intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass change models. Additionally, CliC is contributing to international initiatives, such as the International Polar Year, the 2025 International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and the Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences, 2025-2034 to raise global awareness of the critical role of glaciers and the impacts of glacier retreat.
WCRP also recognizes the importance of understanding what climate research, data and information is needed in a regional context and engaging directly with users. The My Climate Risk Lighthouse Activity, for example, aims to develop and mainstream a ‘bottom-up’ approach to understanding regional climate risk by working with both researchers, especially in the Global South, and the users of climate data, such as farmers, businesses and local communities. Additionally, the Regional Information for Society (RIfS) Core Project leverages existing WCRP activities and expands their scope to provide actionable climate information at regional scales. In particular, RIfS will address the challenges in how to reconcile and integrate multiple lines of climate information (distillation) to produce context-relevant knowledge for decision makers and explore barriers to use this information.
Conclusion
By enabling transformative advances in science through international collaboration and informing global climate policy while supporting achievement of the SDGs, the WMO research programmes are creating lasting global impacts. Moving forward, the importance of research cannot be overlooked as the world confronts increasingly complex challenges that will require new technologies, scientific breakthroughs and innovative approaches to achieve global goals and a better world for present and future generations.
Footnotes
- WCRP is co-sponsored by WMO, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO) and the International Science Council (ISC)
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO). United in Science 2023: Sustainable Development Edition; WMO: Geneva, 2023
- Lelieveld, J., Pozzer, A., Pöschl, U., Fnais, M., Haines, A., and Münzel, T.: Loss of life expectancy from air pollution compared to other risk factors: a worldwide perspective, Cardiovascular Research (2020) 116, 1910–1917, doi:10.1093/ cvr/cvaa025
- World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/news-room/ fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health
- Sommeria, Gilles ; Touzé-Peiffer, Ludovic. Le programme mondial de recherche sur le climat fête ses 40 ans. La Météorologie, 2019, 107, p. 10-13 10.4267/2042/70546. English version available here: https://www.wcrp-climate. org/documents/2019/The%20World%20Climate%20 Research%20Programme%20(WCRP)%20celebrates%20 its%2040th%20anniversary.pdf