Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2025
For the March–May 2025 seasonal average, global ocean sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies were generally above average, particularly in the oceans across the extratropical latitudes.1 A notable exception occurred in the equatorial central Pacific near the Dateline, where SST anomalies were closer to average. All Pacific Niño SST indices were near-average, with the exception of the Niño 1+2 index, which remained above average. Despite these near-average values, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific showed some consistency with a weak La Niña. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index was also near average. Similarly, SST anomalies in both the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) and South Tropical Atlantic (STA) were close to average.
For July–September 2025, Niño SST indices are forecast to remain near average, consistent with neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index and SST anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic and South Tropical Atlantic are also expected to stay near average. Meanwhile, above-average SSTs in the extratropical oceans are projected to persist.
Consistent with the anticipated persistence of widespread above-normal sea-surface temperatures across most ocean basins—except for the near-equatorial central Pacific—above-normal temperatures are projected for nearly all land areas for July-September 2025. The largest increases in the probability of above-normal temperatures are concentrated between 60°S and 60°N. Notable exceptions include interior regions of the Indian subcontinent, where the predicted signal remains weak; areas near 15°N in Africa; and regions over eastern Australia and northwestern North America, where only slight enhancements in the probability for above-normal temperatures are forecast. Over the oceans, a higher likelihood of near-normal temperatures is indicated along the equatorial Pacific east of the Dateline, aligning with expectations for neutral ENSO conditions.
For July–September 2025, rainfall forecasts in the equatorial Pacific reflect an enhanced positive east-towest sea-surface temperature gradient, reminiscent of weak La Niña conditions, despite Niño indices indicating an ENSO-neutral state. Increased probabilities for below-normal rainfall are expected to extend eastward from 150°E to near the Dateline, with a northern branch continuing toward the western coast of Central America. Along the equator, near-normal rainfall is forecast from the Dateline to the western coastal regions of South America. Elsewhere, elevated chances of near- or below-normal rainfall are projected over the equatorial Atlantic; the southeastern Pacific along 30°S east of 120°W toward the west coast of South America; eastern Europe and western Central Asia; and coastal Africa—both near the Gulf of Guinea and to the east near the Great Horn of Africa. In contrast, above-normal rainfall probabilities are anticipated over the Indian subcontinent; parts of eastern Asia; the Maritime Continent; eastern Australia; northwestern South America; northwestern North America; the interior eastern equatorial Africa extending westward along 15°N; and a zonal band around 60°S in the southern Pacific Ocean.
1 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/AttributionAnalysis/images/Attribution202505.pdf
