Anticipatory Climate Adaptation for Communities in Africa (ACACIA)

Project
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Several vehicles drive through a flooded rural road, while a herd of cattle is being guided in the same direction under a cloudy sky.
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Ongoing
Total Funding:
€ 6,200,000
WMO Funding:
€ 180,000
WMO Long-Term Goal(s):
  • Governance
  • Climate Resilience and Adaptation
  • Capacity Development
  • Global Framework for Climate Services
  • Disaster Risk Reduction
Focus Area(s):
  • Forecasting
  • Observations
  • Data Management
  • Early Warnings
  • Service Delivery

Project background

The four-year Horizon Europe-funded project with a EUR 6 million funding aims to enhance the resilience of at-risk communities in Sub-Saharan Africa to climate impacts, particularly from floods and tropical cyclones, by improving the co-production, communication, and use of climate services for both short- and long-term decision-making. The project will foster climate-resilient development through anticipatory action, improved early warning systems, and the integration of nature-based solutions and indigenous knowledge into adaptation planning in Ethiopia and Madagascar.

The WMO’s grant of EUR 0.18M supports the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of Ethiopia (EMI) and Madagascar (MM) as the contractual consortium partner, ensuring their active engagement across the climate services value chain. WMO also facilitates travel and subsistence for experts from NMHS for participating at workshops, courses, and research exchanges. WMO’s involvement strengthens observations, forecasting, service delivery, and the mainstreaming of climate services into national and local governance systems. Through this partnership, WMO directly enables the NMHSs to coordinate peer communities, engage national disaster risk agencies, and implement project activities in-country, ensuring locally owned and sustainable climate adaptation outcomes.

Objective(s)

The overall objective of ACACIA is to enhance the resilience of at-risk communities in Sub-Saharan Africa to climate impacts, particularly from floods and tropical cyclones, by improving the ways climate services are produced, communicated, and used for making short-term and long-term decisions. 

Specific Objectives

  • Provide climate information that is accurate and useful for making decisions
  • Strengthen the ability of at-risk people to access, understand, and act on climate information
  • Enhance the system and sustainability of institutions and policies, mobilizing repertoires for anticipatory and adaptive action
  • Help stakeholders make sense of the changing nature of climate risks, integrating with indigenous and traditional knowledge
  • Provide the first robust evidence of the effects of climate service-based interventions to enhance resilience 

Outputs

Output 1 - Improved sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems for flood and cyclone prediction in Ethiopia and Madagascar.
Output 2 - Co-produced climate services, user-relevant metrics, and Early Action Protocols (EAPs) tailored to community needs.
Output 3 - Established peer communities for transdisciplinary collaboration and governance coordination.
Output 4 - Enhanced capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) through targeted training and technical support.
Output 5 - Policy briefs, communication materials, and a public project website for knowledge dissemination.
Output 6 - Evidence-based impact evaluation reports and cost-benefit analyses from randomized controlled trials (RCTs).
Output 7 - Nature-based solutions (NbS) pilots and community preparedness plans.
Output 8 - Training programmes, capacity-building toolkits, and learning dialogue frameworks.
 

Expected outcomes

  • Strengthened resilience and preparedness among communities in Ethiopia and Madagascar through the establishment and activation of peer communities.
  • Improved anticipatory action and local disaster readiness supported by community-led Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (EVCAs) and the development of Municipal Emergency Plans.
  • Enhanced access to sub-seasonal forecast data and improved capacity of project partners to interpret and apply this information in decision-making.
  • Better-designed cyclone and flood early warning interventions through mapping of preparedness systems and co-design processes with governments, NGOs, and communities.
  • Strengthened skills across project partners in climate risk communication, anticipatory action, forecasting, and community engagement through targeted trainings and capacity-building programmes.
  • Improved baseline understanding of climate-related risks, food security, and livelihoods across intervention areas, informing rigorous intervention package design and testing.
     

Achievements

  • Mapped how governments, NGOs, and communities in Ethiopia and Madagascar prepare for cyclones and floods, producing reports guiding early warning system design.
  • Supported peer communities in Ethiopia and contributed to co-design processes in Madagascar.
  • Led Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (EVCAs) across 19 communes and 130 fokontany, supported by 22 newly trained volunteers.
  • Conducted community training on flood and cyclone preparedness and validated Municipal Emergency Plans in all 19 communes.
  • Improved access to sub-seasonal forecast data, developed research plans, and strengthened collaboration across work packages.
  • Completed baseline testbeds in Madagascar (Jan–Mar 2025) and Ethiopia (Jun–Sep 2025), informing forecasting and user needs.
  • Conducted a baseline survey among 3,600 households in the Sofia region, focusing on climate risks, food security, and livelihoods.
  • Completed capacity needs assessments, launched training programmes, and produced factsheets and forecasting modules.
  • Contributed academic publications on sub-seasonal forecasting skill and prototype model development.
  • Implemented Training of Trainers activities and supported the development of a multidisciplinary climate risk school.
  • Mapped how governments, NGOs, and communities in Ethiopia and Madagascar prepare for cyclones and floods, producing two reports guiding early warning system design.
  • Established and supported peer communities in Ethiopia and contributed to co-design processes in Madagascar.
  • Completed Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (EVCAs) across 19 communes and 130 fokontany with 22 newly trained volunteers.
  • Delivered community training on flood and cyclone preparedness and validated Municipal Emergency Plans (MEPs) in all 19 communes.
  • Fully staffed research teams, including two PhD students, and improved access to sub-seasonal forecast data.
  • Completed baseline testbeds in Madagascar (Jan–Mar 2025) and Ethiopia (Jun–Sep 2025), informing forecasting and user needs analyses.
  • Conducted a large-scale baseline survey of 3,600 households in the Sofia region on climate risks, food security, and livelihoods.
  • Completed capacity needs assessments, launched training programmes, and developed factsheets and sub-seasonal forecasting modules.
  • Published scientific papers on sub-seasonal forecasting skill and prototype model development.
  • Strengthened cross-project collaboration, including Training of Trainers activities and support to multidisciplinary climate risk school development.
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