ENSO neutral conditions expected as La Niña fades, but El Niño chances rise

News

03 March 2026

Geneva (WMO) – The recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade into ENSO-neutral conditions which may swing to a warming El Niño episode later this year, according to the latest Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

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El Niño / La Niña

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El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026)

El Niño refers to the periodic large-scale warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It usually has the opposite effects of La Niña on weather and rainfall patterns.

WMO Global Producing Centres forecasts indicate a 60% chance of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions – neither El Niño or La Niña during March–May 2026, rising to a 70% chance during April-June.

During May-July, the chance of neutral conditions is 60%, whilst the chance of an El Niño increases steadily to around 40%.