Global Seasonal Climate Update for June-July-August 2025
For the February–April 2025 seasonal means, observed sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies were generally above average across global oceans, except in the equatorial western and central Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, the Niño 1+2 SST index anomaly was above average, while the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 indices were near average, and the Niño 4 index was below average. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific aligned with a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The observed Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomaly remained near average. Meanwhile, SST index anomalies in both the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) and South Tropical Atlantic (STA) were somewhat above average, reflecting widespread warmth throughout the Atlantic Ocean north of 45° S.1
For June–August 2025, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 and Niño 3 regions are predicted to remain near average, indicating a neutral state for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Similarly, further west in the Niño 4 region, sea surface temperatures are also forecast to be near average. The Indian Ocean Dipole index strength is likewise anticipated to be near average, as is the equatorial Atlantic in both the northern (NTA) and southern (STA) regions during this period.
Consistent with the expected continuation of widespread above-normal sea surface temperatures across most oceans - except for the near-equatorial central and eastern Pacific - above-normal temperatures are predicted for nearly all land areas. The largest increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures covers land regions between 60°S and 60°N. Exceptions include the interior parts of the Indian subcontinent, where the predicted signal is weak; areas with a weak probability enhancement for above-normal temperatures south of 15°S and along 15°N in Africa; and regions between 20°S and 45°S in South America. Over the oceans, an increased probability of near-normal temperatures is indicated along the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, consistent with the prediction of neutral ENSO conditions.
For June–August 2025, rainfall predictions in the equatorial Pacific align with an enhanced positive east-towest sea surface temperature gradient, resembling conditions observed during a weak La Niña, despite forecasts indicating an ENSO-neutral state for the Niño indices. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall are expected to extend eastward from 150°E to near the Date Line. The northern branch of below-normal rainfall probabilities continues eastward to the western coast of Central America. Along the equator, probabilities for near-normal rainfall are predicted from the Date Line to the western coastal regions of South America. Additionally, enhanced probabilities for near- or below-normal rainfall are predicted over the equatorial Atlantic, the southeastern Pacific along 30°S east of 120°W to the western coastal regions of South America, eastern Europe, and western parts of Central Asia. Probabilities for above-normal rainfall are increased over the Indian subcontinent, northern regions of eastern Asia, the Maritime Continent, northwest South America, interior eastern parts of equatorial Africa and extending westward along 20°N, and a band along 60°S in the southern Pacific Ocean. Over most of Australia, northeastern North America, interior regions in eastern South America, and northern parts of Asia, predictions indicate no clear rainfall signal.
1 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/AttributionAnalysis/images/Attribution202504.pdf
